# | Horse / Sire | Watchmaker Odds | Points | Best Beyer | Owner, Trainer, and Jockey | Last Race, Result, and Beyer | Next Likely Race, Track, and Date | Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments |
1 | Verrazano
by More Than Ready | 5-1 | 150 | 105 | Let's Go Stable, Magnier, Tabor
T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez | Wood Memorial, 4/6 1st by 3/4, 95 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | Jay Privman: Did what he had to do in the Wood. He stalked, came home fast, and held off rivals.
Mike Watchmaker: Also thought his Wood was better than others did. He's still the one to beat. |
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2 | Orb
by Malibu Moon | 6-1 | 150 | 97 | Stuart Janney 3rd & Phipps St.
C. McGaughey/J. Rosario | Florida Derby, 3/30 1st by 2 3/4, 97 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Liked way he reeled in Itsmyluckyday, kicked clear. Seems to be getting better and better.
MW: And I liked how he handled an unfavorable pace. Closers need luck in Derby, but he's solid. |
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3 | Goldencents
by Into Mischief | 8-1 | 129 | 105 | W. C. Racing, et al
D. O'Neill/K. Krigger | Santa Anita Derby, 4/6 1st by 1 1/4, 105 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Ran the best race of his life in SA Derby. Relaxed better, and turned in career-high Beyer fig.
MW: The fig was there, and the performance was gutsy, but how good are the horses he beat? |
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4 | Revolutionary
by War Pass | 8-1 | 110 | 102 | WinStar Farm
T. Pletcher/C. Borel | Louisiana Derby, 3/30 1st by a neck, 93 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Was skeptical of field he beat in Withers, but liked La. Derby a lot. Big-time Derby player.
MW: Performed professionally at FG, but let's not forget he was life and death to beat Mylute. |
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5 | Normandy Invasion
by Tapit | 10-1 | 44 | 99 | Fox Hill Farms
C. Brown/J. Castellano | Wood Memorial, 4/6 2nd by 3/4, 94 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Wasn't sure what to make of him after Risen Star, but Wood was definitely a move forward.
MW: Nice finish into slow Wood pace, but so far, he's run better at Aqueduct than anywhere else. |
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6 | Itsmyluckyday
by Lawyer Ron | 12-1 | 50 | 104 | Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa
E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo | Florida Derby, 3/30 2nd by 2 3/4, 93 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: No match in the final furlong for Orb, but still ran well in first start in more than two months.
MW: Now, the big question: Can he replicate his excellent Gulfstream form on another track? |
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7 | Java's War
by War Pass | 15-1 | 122 | 96 | Charles Fipke
K. McPeek/J. Leparoux | Blue Grass, 4/13 1st by a neck, 89 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Think he's a very sneaky horse. Liked return on dirt in Tampa, closed strongly to win at Kee.
MW: A big concern is, he's not so good that he can expect to overcome another lazy start at CD. |
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8 | Overanalyze
by Dixie Union | 15-1 | 110 | 99 | Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/R. Bejarano | Arkansas Derby, 4/13 1st by 4 1/4, 88 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Disappointed in first start of year, but showed improvement in Ark. Derby, though fig was low.
MW: He improved only two Beyer points at OP off his empty Gotham. The Ark. Derby was soft. |
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9 | Vyjack
by Into Mischief | 15-1 | 70 | 96s | Pick Six Racing
R. Rodriguez/G. Gomez | Wood Memorial, 4/6 3rd by 1, 93 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Wood was deceptively good. Prefers to sit back, make one run. Race shape was against him.
MW: Even if he's best as a deep closer, he'll have to improve a notch, and will need luck at CD. |
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10 | Govenor Charlie
by Midnight Lute | 20-1 | 50 | 95 | Michael Pegram
B. Baffert/M. Garcia | Sunland Derby, 3/24 1st by 5, 95 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: No works since April 11 owing to hind foot problem, and he's only run 3 times. Not for me.
MW: Verrazano has just 4 starts, but it does seem the vibes around this horse now are negative. |
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11 | Palace Malice
by Curlin | 20-1 | 50 | 93 | Dogwood Stable
T. Pletcher/M. Smith | Blue Grass, 4/13 2nd by a neck, 89 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: After horrible trip in Louisiana Derby, he made good use of final prep to earn Ky. Derby berth.
MW: But he wasn't good enough in the Blue Grass, and after a smooth trip; must raise his game. |
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12 | Will Take Charge
by Unbridled's Song | 20-1 | 60 | 95 | Willis Horton
D. W. Lukas/J. Court | Rebel, 3/16 1st by a head, 95 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Downgraded after poor try on sloppy, sealed track in Southwest, but he rebounded in Rebel.
MW: Rebel was his best race so far, but he's been wildly inconsistent. Can he put two together? |
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13 | Charming Kitten
by Kitten's Joy | 30-1 | 20 | 88 | Ken & Sarah Ramsey
T. Pletcher/undecided | Blue Grass, 4/13 3rd by 1/2, 88 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Ken Ramsey is going to the Derby! He's the least-regarded of Pletcher's Fab Five, though.
MW: Hope just being in it is enough for Ramsey, because this colt is a total unknown on dirt. |
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14 | Frac Daddy
by Scat Daddy | 30-1 | 44 | 91 | Magic City Thb'd Partners
K. McPeek/V. Lebron | Arkansas Derby, 4/13 2nd by 4 1/4, 81 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Quality of Ark. Derby questionable. Never been a big fan of this guy, but he earned the points.
MW: Has not run a race yet that says he can win this, and that includes his two stakes seconds. |
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15 | Lines of Battle
by War Front | 30-1 | 100 | 74t | Allen, Magnier, Tabor, et al
A. O'Brien/R. Moore | UAE Derby, 3/30 1st by 1 1/2, 111 (RPR) | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Derby to be first dirt race. Pedigree suggests he can handle it. Hope to see him work at CD.
MW: Given the lack of past success, the first Ky. Derby winner out of UAE will be at my expense. |
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16 | Mylute
by Midnight Lute | 30-1 | 41 | 93 | Gold Mark & Whisper Hill Farms
T. Amoss/R. Napravnik | Louisiana Derby, 3/30 2nd by a neck, 93 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Didn't like way he gave it up in Risen Star, but he bounced back with better effort in La. Derby.
MW: Had La. Derby won, but he couldn't hold on late. Doubt added distance at CD will help him. |
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17 | Oxbow
by Awesome Again | 30-1 | 36 | 95 | Calumet Farm
D. W. Lukas/G. Stevens | Arkansas Derby, 4/13 5th by 5 1/4, 80 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Until Ark. Derby, had fired every time. That was a step back, plus Beyer was poor. Puzzler.
MW: Even if he got his bad race out of his system now, he still seems a cut below the best here. |
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18 | Black Onyx
by Rock Hard Ten | 50-1 | 50 | 90 | Sterling Racing
K. Breen/J. Bravo | Spiral, 3/23 1st by 1 1/2, 90 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Breen one of the best in game at flying below the radar while shrewdly managing his horses.
MW: Must substantially improve to complete the Spiral-Derby double turned by Animal Kingdom. |
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19 | Falling Sky
by Lion Heart | 50-1 | 30 | 92 | Newtown Anner Stud, et al
J. Terranova 2nd/L. Saez | Arkansas Derby, 4/13 4th by 5, 80 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m Churchill Downs, 5/4 | JP: Can't find any evidence in recent races that he's capable of handling this kind at this point.
MW: It's not that his form is bad. It isn't. He just falls well short of being a Gr.1, 10 furlong horse. |
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20 | Titletown Five
by Tiznow | 50-1 | 0 | 98s | Hornung, Martin, Lukas, et al
D. W. Lukas/G. Stevens | Louisiana Derby, 3/30 9th by 8 1/2, 79 | Derby Trial, 1 m Churchill Downs, 4/27 | JP: Listed because Derby Trial worth 20 points to winner. Lukas trains, Hornung lives in Louisville.
MW: I actually liked him at FG, but he was surprisingly hooked early. This is a different ballgame. |
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Horses listed in order of Watchmaker odds
(s) Top Beyer earned in sprint; (t) Top Beyer earned on turf; (RPR) Racing Post Rating |